S&P 500 Tries To Make It Eight Straight
The market is putting in a pretty surprising rally here, with the SPX currently higher for an 8th straight day.  That's a pretty rare feat.  We looked at several different breadth indicators and all of them are in overbought territory.  That makes a short-term pullback likely, but it also could highlight the early stages of fund flows out of bond funds and into equities.In economic news, new home sales for December came in below expectations at 369,000, which was also below November's reading of 398,000.Earning season continues a
http://mymoneylife.blogspot.com/2013/01/s-500-tries-to-make-it-eight-straight.html 2013-01-25 10:29:00 PST

Wednesday links: from lows to highs
Quote of the day Tim Richards, “Our view of the world is dichotomous, it’s either all bad or all good and when our beliefs about our levels of control are breached we swing from high to low.”  (The Psy-Fi Blog) Chart of the day The S&P 500 doesn’t get much more overbought than this.  (Bespoke, ibid) Markets More signs that sentiment is getting a bit elevated.  (Institutional Imperative, Phil Pearlman) Why David Tepper is (still) bullish.   (Market Folly) Everybody hates bonds.  (Bianco) Five reasons to be cautious
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/t9NGhSuGBi4/ 2013-01-23 11:42:04 PST

Thursday links: tapped out theses
Quote of the day David Merkel, “Value investing I do not think is tapped-out, though beating value indexes is difficult.”  (Aleph Blog) Chart of the day Are international stocks set for a multi-year period of outperformance?  (dshort) Markets Sector rotation is all over the map.  (All Star Charts) Investor sentiment is getting elevated.  (Bespoke) The snap back potential for the Chinese stock market.  (Market Anthropology) Using cluster analysis to identify market trends.  (CSS Analytics) Strategy How well did Ben Graham̵
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/cjO2X0ZS5JQ/ 2013-01-10 11:58:01 PST

Wednesday links: paying for mediocrity
If you haven’t done it already think about signing up for our daily e-mail, thousands of other Abnormal Returns readers already have. Quote of the day James Picerno, “..it’s no great feat to earn average returns. The main question is how much you pay for mediocrity. This is no trivial issue. “  (Capital Spectator) Chart of the day The US is facing a nasty flu season.  (Google Flu Trends via kottke) Markets Transports are nearing all-time highs.  (Bespoke) The case against high yield bonds.  (Morningstar also Marketw
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/KV02vY-4wBU/ 2013-01-09 11:54:54 PST

Tuesday links: dining off your ignorance
Quote of the day Rob Carrick, “The mutual fund industry dines off your ignorance.”  (The Globe and Mail) Chart of the day Is the consumer discretionary sector losing steam?  (All Star Charts) Markets Wanna hedge the S&P 500? It’s pretty cheap at the moment.  (Focus on Funds) 2013 should be another year of record dividends.  (MarketBeat) Ten reasons to NOT be so bullish in 2013.  (Big Picture) Hedge funds Quant hedge funds had a rough 2012.  (Bloomberg) Managed account platforms are the future of hedge funds.  (All
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/jzCK3qST37Y/ 2013-01-08 11:56:04 PST

Monday links: relaxing market fears
Quote of the day Michael Santoli, “Over a longer span, the relaxation of market fears such as just unfolded has tended to be more positive than not for the market over a multi-month horizon.”  (Yahoo! Finance) Chart of the day Should equity investors be worried about a low VIX?  (Short Side of Long, Quantifiable Edges) Markets Hedge funds limped to a 5.5% return in 2012.  (FT, Bloomberg) The junk bond market seems pretty played out.  (WSJ, FT Alphaville) Is this a better measure of uncertainty than the VIX?  (Condor Options) S
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/Lq1TEZDX0YU/ 2013-01-07 11:54:36 PST

Saturday links: imperial overstretch
The weekend is a great time to catch up on some longer items that we passed up on during the week. Thanks for checking in. Investing Ten manager search and selection tips.  (Enterprising Investor) America’s banks are big, black boxes.  (The Atlantic) Economics How “free stuff” changes the market economy.  (FT Alphaville) Economics may have reached “the stage of imperial overstretch.”  (Justin Fox) Economists have been too disconnected from the lessons of history.  (Economist’s View) Technology The techno
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/Qck1FyBSPtc/ 2013-01-05 06:55:41 PST

US Economy -- Outlook Sketchy
In terms of physical capital, the US now stands at levels seen after a garden varietyrecession. Both capacity utilization and the unemployment rate have recovered significantlyfrom very depressed levels. So has banking balance sheet liquidity and capital bouncedback from deep lows. As all know, housing and construction activity remain depressed.The Fed is providing ample monetary liquidity and interest rates remain low.Viewed long term against its potential, business sales, although at an all time high, remainabout 20% below trend reflecting no
http://capmarketline.blogspot.com/2013/01/us-economy-outlook-sketchy.html 2013-01-03 16:40:00 PST

Monday links: valuation vagaries
Here’s hoping our readers had a happy and healthy 2012. We will catch up again in the New Year! Quote of the day Howard Lindzon, “Cheap is a dangerous term in investing.”  (Howard Lindzon) Chart of the day Lumber futures are at an 8-year high.  (WSJ cautionary Bloomberg) Markets Market tendencies change: see the last trading day of the year.  (Quantifiable Edges) Stop looking for edges in the ultra-short term.  (Dynamic Hedge) A look back at one of the more prescient calls in 2012.  (research puzzle pix) Portfolio insura
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/abnormalreturns/~3/DJ30aXwGFkg/ 2012-12-31 10:23:50 PST

US Financial System Liquidity
In this post, I take a little different approach to the issue of financial system liquidity.Over the 2000 - mid 2008 period, US bank financial assets grew at a rate of 9.4%annually. This dramatic growth was sufficient to fund a major boom in real estateplus moderate levels of economic expansion and inflation. Then came the grand bust inboth the economy and finance. Since the middle of 2008, total bank credit has grownby 1.1% per year, with this lowly rate of growth supported and backstopped by a $2 tril.expansion of credit by the Federal Reserv
http://capmarketline.blogspot.com/2012/12/us-financial-system-liquidity.html 2012-12-19 16:48:00 PST